We are continuing a series considering the excellent Christians Are Hate-Filled Hypocrites…and Other Lies You’ve Been Told: A Sociologist Shatters Myths From the Secular and Christian Media
In chapter 2, Wright considers the much ballyhooed statistics “showing” that the American church will shrink to next to nothing in just a few decades. For example, Michael Spencer, at Internetmonk.com, wrote,
I believe that we are on the verge- within 10 years- of a major collapse of evangelical Christianity; a collapse that will follow the deterioration of the mainline Protestant world and that will fundamentally alter the religious and cultural environment in the West. I believe this evangelical collapse will happen with astonishing statistical speed; that within two generations of where we are now evangelicalism will be a house deserted of half its current occupants, leaving in its wake nothing that can revitalize evangelicals to their former “glory.”
Wright tests this and many similar predictions against the data gathered in the General Social Survey, an annual survey of over 1,000 people on a wide range of questions, going back to 1972 — which is far enough back to see trend lines. Moreover, there are less frequent surveys of tens of thousands of Americans that give excellent data but aren’t as regular and so not as useful for tracking trends.
Of course, predicting the future is God’s business, but we can test whether predictions made by people are justified by the data.
Now, the General Social Survey shows that respondents with “no religion” have increased from about 7 or 8% in the 1970s and 1980s to about 15% in the 1990s. But the level of “no religion” has remained flat ever since then.
Wright then asks the important question: why? Countless pastors have speculated as to the cause: lack of evangelistic fervor, the end of prayer in the schools, R-rated movies, MTV … Wright checks the data.
It turns out that the people who gave up their affiliation with Christianity are “liberals and moderates who had relatively weak ties to the church.” There was no increase in disaffiliation among conservatives.
[T]here may be a substantial cost for the church to play politics — we lose people. Quite possibly, the church would be bigger now without its prior foray into politics [during the Moral Majority and Christian Coalition years].
The data reveal that disaffiliation would have increased by only 3% to 4% outside of the church’s political shift in the 1980s and 1990s. Because the church has become much less politicized of late, the rate of attrition among the left-leaning members has greatly slowed.
Of course, that does mean that there are other factors at play. It’s not just politics, and perhaps larger cultural factors were at play. But the trendline has now stabilized.
When we look closer at the data, we find a richer, more nuanced story about what’s happening with religion in America, and for Evangelicals there is some good news. Let’s start with a simple question: Which religions do Americans practice today? … Three out of 4 Americans affiliate themselves with Christianity; 1 in 6 is religiously unaffiliated; and 1 in 13 practices another religion. As such, the United States is still very much a country of Christians.
There trendlines among various kinds of Christians and other religions are also very instructive.
You can see that the mainline denominations are in freefall. Meanwhile, there’s a rise in unaffiliated Americans. Black churches lost members in the 1970s but have been steady since then. Meanwhile, we see that evangelicals grew in the 1970s and early 1980s, but then began to lose members as a percentage of the overall population. Other groups are quite stable.
In 1990, only about 200,000 Americans described themselves as nondenominational Christians, but in 2008, 8 million did.
This is a truly astonishing statistic. Americans are rejecting denominational Christianity by the millions.
Wright points out that, despite reporting to the contrary, the “unaffiliated” are not largely atheists. Rather,
many of them are religious. … However, the majority (56%) of them believe in God. Another 22% believe in a higher power. Only 8% of the religiously unaffiliated [8% of 15%] actually do not believe in God (i.e., are atheists), and another 14% believe there is no way to know for if there is a God (i.e., agnosticism). Over half (55%) believe that Bible is either the literal or inspired Word of God … . About three-fourths view themselves as spiritual.
Wright speculates that part of the increase in unaffiliation is due to the increasing tolerance of that point of view. People are just being more honest or else willing to live without a church affiliation.
Since 1972, Evangelical Christians have more than doubled in number, going from about 25 million adults to almost 60 million.
Long-term trends
This is one of most fascinating parts of the book.
Now, if you’re like me, you’ve been told by respected leaders of the American church —
* That America was founded as a Christian nation. We look back on 1776 as a high-water mark of Christianity — the days when Christianity was in its proper place in society.
In reality, less than 20% of Americans were Christian adherents! After all, the French Revolution — support by our own Thomas Paine — was a war against both church and state — renaming Notre Dame Cathedral as the Temple of Reason. American thought was greatly influenced by atheistic French thought. Indeed, the lack of Christianity in America is the reason for the First and Second Great Awakenings.
* That the church and Christianity were much better off in the 1950s — back when prayer was allowed in school. But adherance has grown — as a percentage of a rapidly growing population — even since!
Yes, society has been greatly harmed during this time by many negative, unhealthy social trends, but the church has grown.
There are major, national ministries raising millions all on the assumption that things are going to hell — especially as compared to the 1950s and 1770s. They are built on false facts. That doesn’t mean they don’t do good. Some do. Some don’t. It just means that God’s church isn’t going to find Paradise by going backwards in time.
"In 1990, only about 200,000 Americans described themselves as nondenominational Christians, but in 2008, 8 million did."
In 1990 there would have been a lot more than 200,000 members of the CoC in the United States and nearly all of them woul have described themselves as non-denominational Christians. Is this supposed to say 2,000,000 maybe?
The second figure disagrees with a number of recent books that claim that Christians comprise about 10% of America and that the we all need to see ourselves as missionaries in a secular world. Interesting.
Mike,
Ever since 'nondenominational' became a relevant demographic label, the churches of Christ began to reject it along with its synonyms 'community church', 'emerging church', and 'missional church'.
In such statistics, churches of Christ have (at least since 1906) been counted separately from nondenominational Christians. Take a glance at your local phone book if you have any lingering doubts.
A couple of observations on your notation, "That America was founded as a Christian nation. We look back on 1776 as a high-water mark of Christianity — the days when Christianity was in its proper place in society. In reality, less than 20% of Americans were Christian adherents! After all, the French Revolution — support by our own Thomas Paine — was a war against both church and state — renaming Notre Dame Cathedral as the Temple of Reason. American thought was greatly influenced by atheistic French thought. Indeed, the lack of Christianity in America is the reason for the First and Second Great Awakenings."
The French Revolution didn't start until several years after 1776 – 1789 to be exact – and even then the most radical elemants had not yet "risen" to the top to control the direction of that revolution. So this was not a factor influencing America's leaders in 1776.
Second, while it might not be appropriate to say, "America was founded as a Christian nation" it was and is entirely appropriate to say America was founded on Godly principles and as a God-fearing nation. Bruce Feiler in "America's Prophet" notes the high regard the founding fathers and populace had for Moses, and how our National Seal came very close to including the parting of the Red Sea in its imagery.
Blessings
Alan,
The successful French Revolution occured in 1789. Look at when Voltaire (1750s), Diderot (1740s), and Rousseau (1762) wrote their most influential works and tell me with a straight face that they didn't influence the American Revolution. The reason the Americans got their revolution off first was a) the Atlantic Ocean made it a lot easier to rebel against England, and b) the American rebels were financially backed by the French government – the French rebels had no such backing. The "most radical elements" were publishing 20 years before the American Revolution began.
OK, I will say it with a straight face – "this was not a factor influencing America’s leaders in 1776."
🙂
The de-Christianization of France did not even have long-lasting impact in France. The church joined the third estate in the 1789 National Assembly. When the Cult of Man and the Cult of the Supreme Being were promoted by the French revolutionary govenment beginning in 1790, it initially contributed significantly to the Reign of Terror but also is what like led to the end of the reign and the downfall of Robespierre in 1794. When the Directory gained power, it brough back legalized Christian public worship in 1795 (there were still limitations, but the Cults were officially dead) and the Consulate passed the Concordat of 1801 freed the church even more from govenment limitations. Today, this movement is looked at with derision in France.
The fact remains that the anti-Christian elements did not impact the formation of the American revolution or govenment.
Again, I reference a look at Bruce Feiler's book on the influence of Moses on America, "American Prophet" (Feiler is Jewish) as one source among many that indicate the a Godly nation (I didn't say "Christian") was very much on the mind of America's founders.
Blessings
Mike,
In 1906, David Lipscomb advised the US Census Bureau that the a cappella Churches of Christ should be listed as a separate denomination from the Christian Churches/Disciples of Christ. The story is well told at http://www.aliensphere.com/one/pmeetings/DrFoster…
I've never understood the logic behind the claim that the Churches of Christ aren't a "denomination." We are. We always have been. And, obviously enough, in 1906 the Churches didn't choose to be classified as "nondenominational" — they preferred to be listed together under a distinctive name. (To avoid being a "denomination," we invent some truly creative definitions for the term.)
And this remains true today. Check out the Yellow Pages in your hometown. You'll find the Churches of Christ listed under "Church of Christ" NOT under "Nfondenominational." You'll find us listed in the Handbook of Denominations, with very conservative sources gladly reporting our numbers for inclusion.
We act like a denomination. We quack like a denomination. And when surveyors call and ask whether we are nondenominational, we say "no." And we speak the truth.
Dwayne,
We absolutely should see ourselves as missionaries in a secular world.
Many who self-identify as Christians aren't church goers. Some aren't very committed. But this has always been true. The figures are therefore more useful in terms of comparing Christian percentages from decade to decade rather than judging just how many are truly Christian. I'm sure a large number of those self-identified as Christians aren't really Christians — but this was true in 1776, too.
The 10% figure sounds like a Barna figure, and I'm not sure I trust it. I do believe that many of those self-identified as Christian need to be converted to Christ. And church leaders are beginning to realize that the de-churched need to be shown Jesus just as much as the un-churched. Both groups have a real need for missionaries to show them Jesus.
Alan S wrote,
Alan S,
The Revolutionary War was from 1776 to 1783. The Constitution (with the First Amendment) was ratified in 1788.
The events leading up to the French Revolution have roots going back long before then. Voltaire's Deism and criticism of the church goes back at least to 1733 and his Letters on the English Nation. Rousseau's Deism also predates the American Revolution, as does the atheism of a number of other French philosophers.
Thus, the seeds of the French Revolution's rejection of Christianity were sown well before the American Revolution, which is one reason so many of the American intellectuals, such as Franklin and Jefferson, were Deists. The low percentage of professing Christians at the time is entirely consistent with the influence of French philosophy of the time, which was also associated with revolution, as Rousseau, for example, argued for popular sovereignty against the divine right of kings — making him very popular in many circles as he offered an intellectual justification for revolution.
Of course, many of the Founding Fathers were devout Christians, as well. Some were even ordained clergymen. The influence of the Christianity of these men is quite real and pronounced.
I'm arguing neither for nor against the idea that the US was founded as a Christian nation in the political sense. I'm just saying that the idea that the US began as a nation of Christians is not true.
Nick,
I've got to stop answering comments you've already answered. Really need to start reading ahead …
Welcome back, Jay! I meant to try and run into you while you were in L'ville. Alas, I could not – but it would have been fun! I will come to University the next time I'm down home (McCalla/Bessemer, but close enough to Tuscaloosa to make the drive!).
Nick,
I'd be thrilled to meet you. I'd even buy lunch at Dreamland BBQ.