Having reviewed much of the available data for Churches of Christ in the U.S., I thought it would be helpful to review data for the American church, more broadly defined.
This information is from Bradley R.E. Wright, Christians Are Hate-Filled Hypocrites…and Other Lies You’ve Been Told: A Sociologist Shatters Myths From the Secular and Christian Media
We begin by looking at the long-term trend lines for religious affiliation in the U.S. Here’s th graph —
Contrary to myth, American participation in religion (almost entirely Christian) has dramatically increased from the Revolutionary War until now. It’s one of the great success stories of Christian missions! And yet the popular press and some elements within Christianity — to make a political point — falsely claim that we began as a nearly 100% Christian nation and that we’ve been on the decline ever since. It’s not true.
You see, in the 1700s, French Deism (Voltaire, Rousseau) were all the fashion. And many Americans were shipped here out of the British prisons. The Americans weren’t in love with the European state churches that had congregations in the U.S. but that owed allegiance to Scotland, England, Germany, or Switzerland. Indeed, much of the growth in the 19th Century arose from indigenous denominations — such as the Stone-Campbell Movement — which were free churches, separate from the European state religions.
Wright provides another chart to show that there was a major increase in non-affiliation with any churches beginning around 1990, evidently due to the movement of evangelicals into Republican politics.
Perhaps the most persuasive explanation for this change comes from sociologists Michael Hout and Claude Fischer. Analyzing data from the General Social Survey, they found that the increases in religious disaffiliation happened among political liberals and moderates who had relatively weak ties to the church. Disaffiliation did not increase for political conservatives. They concluded that many Christians left the church because of the church’s active affiliation with conservative politics.
Even so, the rate of church affiliation has grown during the latter decades of the 20th Century — but not for all denominations. Despite largely staying out of politics (thank you, David Lipscomb!), we did not grow at all while the overall growth rate was strongly positive.
Even more amazing is the opportunity we missed to seize this trend —
In particular, an increasing number of Evangelical Christians now describe themselves in general terms such as nondenominational, born again, or just Christian instead of using denominational labels such as Baptist or Evangelical Free. Reflecting this change, in 1990, only about 200,000 Americans described themselves as nondenominational Christians, but in 2008, 8 million did so.
That’s right. While we were plateaued, 8,000,000 Americans chose to change from a denominational identity to a nondenominational identity. Meanwhile, our members appear to be as strongly denominational as ever! If you doubt me, just try changing your congregation’s name!
We’re a movement founded to be non-denominational: Christians only but not the only Christians. And yet while the rest of the American church was looking for what we claim to offer, we acted exactly like a denomination — more committed to a trademark than to evangelism.
Moreover, while we’d be inclined to blame our lack of growth on larger societal trends — Postmodernism, secularism, etc., scholars credit these very things with helping the evangelical churches grow!
The continued strength of evangelical Christianity in the United States poses a puzzle. Why have Evangelicals thrived in such a diverse society that many Evangelicals believe actively opposes Christianity? Sociologist Christian Smith offers a compelling answer. He posits that American evangelical Christianity has prospered because its members perceive society as opposed to them and as threatening their faith. This distinction between the church and secular society has various benefits. It provides identity and meaning for Evangelical Christians. It defines them as group members and increases their commitment to their group. Also, the existence of other religious options reinforces our understanding of evangelical belief as a choice rather than merely an expectation of society, and this too increases commitment. Ironically, the contemporary forces of secularism, pluralism, and postmodernism that Evangelicals sometimes denounce might actually help keep the church strong.
Again, we’ve preached loudly against Postmodernism, all the while managing to lose the opportunities Postmodernism has provided us.
Moreover, those who are unaffiliated (unchurched) are often very open to spiritual conversations —
However, the majority (56%) of them believe in God. Another 22% believe in a higher power. Only 8% of the religiously unaffiliated actually do not believe in God (i.e., are atheists), and another 14% believe there is no way to know for sure if there is a God (i.e., agnosticism). Over half (55%) believe that the Bible is either the literal or inspired Word of God, whereas 41% view it as a book of fables. Forty-nine percent pray daily or weekly and only 25% never pray. About half view themselves as religious to some degree, and three-fourths view themselves as spiritual.
So why aren’t the Churches of Christ growing? Why have we declined when so many other conservative, Bible-believing, Jesus-preaching denominations have grown?
We often complain that the numbers are distorted by immigration or whatever, but —
Since 1972, Evangelical Christians have more than doubled in number, going from about 25 million adults to almost 60 million. Likewise, the number of Catholics, religiously unaffiliated, and members of other religions grew considerably. The number of Black Protestants and Jews remained mostly stable, and the number of Mainline Protestants dropped, from over 40 million to less than 35 million.
Now, with these data in mind, reflect on how well the Churches of Christ are doing in the United States.
You see, as bad as being in decline is, when you compare our numbers to the overall trends in society, you find that the trends aren’t the problem. In fact, they could have been a source of strength.
No, the problem is us.
In an era when non-denominational Christianity is becoming more attractive to people, we have acted more and more like a denomination – while simultaneously becoming less and less evangelistic. Instead of focusing on Jesus, too many of us have focused on fine points of doctrine that are based on assumptions and inferences. Moreover, our focus has not been merely to discuss these – but to vigorously holding onto those doctrines without even considering reasons these may be mistaken.
Many denominations have risen and then declined over the past 200+ years. When one denomination declines, others spring up to take up the slack. That pattern has been the norm throughout American history. So churches of Christ are normal in that regard, not an outlier. Remember, in the 1950’s, churches of Christ were the fastest growing religious group in America.
The particular reasons why denominations decline may differ, but the basic cause is the same. They start out radical, become successful, then comfortable, then irrelevant. They lose their edge.
By “missing the boat” on the opportunity to reach those embracing the growing non-denominational trend, it only reinforces my theory that the more COC claims not to be a denomination, the more we act like a denomination. Of course, I am speaking generally. There are many good congregations doing great Christ-centered work in the evangelism field. However, as a whole, we have much we need to learn and “lose” in terms of legalism if we are to fulfill our role as Christians and reach others.
Thank you, Jay. This is a great analysis. It is evidence of an interesting but tragic 250-year church cycle that begins with a spirit of independence among a remnant of a previous cycle — to increasing isolation (pride, protectionism, and denial) and sowing to the flesh — to reaping the flesh (chaos, division, etc) — to the inevitable consequences of entropy — to the remnant that will start the next cycle. This cycle is classic and obeys the 2nd law of thermodynamics which God created for the natural world. It is difficult for a self-isolated system (i.e., closed) to have any any outside-sourced energy when it claims that engine quit working after the first century. Yet the answer was in the Word (“the Spirit”) but unrecognized because the Spirit (outside energy source) that would lead us to all truth was doctrinally quenched. Some will remain in staunch denial until the building is bulldozed down for construction of something useful, like a new apartment complex. What a lesson in the sovereignty of God has been set before us. What will we learn beside just changing the church name?
If you attribute our lack of growth to the quenching of the Spirit then one must assume that when we we’re growing(50’s-60’s) then we had not “quenched” the Spirit. And yet the CofC was much more (the only bunch)back then than in the 90’s and 2000’s. Next theory.
Monty
What “one must assume” is that the periodicity of your cycle is too short. What was sown in the 1950’s was not recognized until documented decades later. Things have to grow to maturity before the tares can be recognized from the wheat. The seed that is sown may not be immediately harvested, but the consequences may be reaped generations later. God said in the OT that consequences of sin would be seen in the next generation and the generation after that. You apparently are on a much more finite time scale. The title of this post includes the words, “the larger picture.”
Short term thinking leads to cyclic repetition of previous errors. That becomes more pronounced as the consequences of past poor choices begin to pile up, and short reflex compensation measures are attempted. That sort of response is what often causes a car to skid off the highway. The church or anything else follows the same laws of physics as does the car, Monty. God created it that way in the natural realm. And, that’s not a good sign — either in the CoC or in the US Congress.
I would suggest that while one may not be able to directly correlate numerical decline to the quenching of the Spirit, there are thousands of us out here who left essentially for that reason. It is a mistake to try to pin a whole direction on one reason, as the writer here tries to pin mainline flight on the Republican party. One may note that gasoline prices also climbed during this period, but I don’t find that causative, either.
Quenching the Spirit is much, much more than forbidding tongues and prophesy or denying the supernatural. It also kills repentance, blinds us to error, deafens us to the poor and the lost, and makes the church nothing more than one set of ethics competing with others in the moral/religious marketplace. Where the Spirit focuses everything on Jesus, those who quench His influence wind up focused on doctrinal distinctives, human performance, tradition, and defending the status quo of personal comfort and influence.
What he said. Three thumbs up.
I guess the Mormons and the Witnesses(two very exclusive groups) haven’t put out the Spirit’s fire since they are growing more than almost all other groups. Although their doctrine is pretty messed up. Most protestant churches are on the decline according to a report I just read from the National Council of Churches. Baptist blame it on a “diminshing commitment to evangelism.” In my own experience, used to be everybody was a “prospect” but nowadays most have the view that if you say you believe in Jesus your OK. Leave em be. My fellow church members tell me they don’t know anybody who doesn’t attend church anywhere.
The ‘larger picture” is exactly what folks like Yeakley and Norton don’t get! They are still busy comparing us to other religious groups for vindication and validation. They can still write a book and not address the core issues and spend more time defending the doctrines and practices. They like many others will continue until their local congregation closes down and even then move across town to the next church and blame the problem on something else like demographics even when their own children have left the c of C or Christianity all together.
The Rosemount congregation closed down in down town Ft. Worth not long ago. The Chronicle reported it as a victory because the Hispanic outreach was going to use the building now. The truth is Ft. Worth is busting with young professionals and multi ethic and multi cultural people the white middle is in decline and has been for some time.
The church eventually became void of youth and younger adults.
It is hard to admit but down town Ft. Worth is ………Post Modern and Multi cultural yep that is right Cow Town Texas is now it.
Now the “larger picture” in the USA for churches of Christ is this, not how do we convince other Christians our way of doing church is more scriptural but how do we convince complete non-believing multi cultural/ethnic/racial/etcetera 18-35 year olds to believe in Jesus and the Bible? This is what we should be researching, testing, reporting, training and about which we should be writing a book.
Amen!
If you have the most members, you gotta be right, right.?
Joe
The thing I don’t get most is your post. If you are suggesting that I wrote a book or helped Yeakley write a book or posted something on this site defending present CofC doctrines and compared us with other religious groups for validation, you leave me scratching my head. I will admit that I have not publicly addressed the core issues for stopping our decline.
Jay:
[SENTENCE DELETED FOR VIOLATION OF SITE POLICIES] Want to give a solid portrait to your readers? Soak up John MacArthur’s The Truth War. While stats may say that “Evangelicals” are growing, MacArthur’s argument with vigor and examples is that such data is skewed. Evangelical groups who are committed to the Word and focus on more than a mystical approach to “feeling Jesus” are NOT growing. They are seeing youth drift away as well. They are facing the exact same consequence as are many churches of Christ (but not all; I am aware of conservative congregations that are healthy and growing (I am in one and rejoice at what I see). And for that reason I am disappointed by those who do not see good (or do not want to see good).
This may not “fit” the “Progressive” perspective, but you would do well to get ahold of more than just numbers here. The issue is NOT confined to churches of Christ. It is national — and deadly.
And would you please stop with the “we are a denomination.” You know as well as I that the Lord sees His people congregation by congregation. He reveals that in Revelation. And that is how we too should see ANY religious group.
In Christ,
Bruce Morton
Katy, Texas
I am not convinced by numerical growth alone; and not too disturbed if the numbers decrease (for the right reasons). Evangelicalism is as divided as the churches of Christ, and many are troubled by the price they pay for the (numerical) growth: Increasing worldliness (one of the more pronounced critics of this trend is John Mac Arthur). After all: The Evangelical Gospel is the least demanding message around, giving assurace for a simple prayer. I freqently hear that around 40% ofthe US population claim to be born again; yet when I am there, I see these Christians as being hardly different than the rest.
I don’t mean to be judgemental on this. I just observe what I see, and this makes these numbers pretty irrelevant.
This does not mean, that churches of Christ have no need to reconsider their direction and actions and attitudes. We do very much so! But our loss of numbers goes (at least to a large part) to the credit of an Evangelical Gospel which is missing a lot (as I noted from this series). When we fail to convey the message more deeply it is no wonder this happens; as soon (or as long) as we define ourselves like the pharisees (I am not like them) and not in Christ, we will win and keep a number of zealous adherents, but not many disciples. Thus our churches can be as “right” as they are “cold”, observng the ordinances but not with the hearts of disciples. To me it’s THIS what is lacking the most among us.
And it’s this (discipleship), what even Bill Hybels noticed that was lacking in one of the largest movements of Evangelical (Willow Creek). Numbers alone are no indicator for the work of the Spirit.
Alexander
Awesome topic and discussion. Thank you all for your clarity and courage in sharing. God can handle it, Jesus died and rose for it, and truly the Spirit is moving through all of this openess of hearts.
Can we handle the idea that all of this fragmentation is a good thing as the data shows? God is forever mentioning reasons for radical action based on His love for the whole world not the institutions that man requests of Him. Let’s move with Gospel of Jesus and be the ones that will share that calling.
Another lesson from Jonah besides the sign of Jesus raising was that God was moving to a catholic application of His relationship with humanity. Has God provided a worm in the shady vine of the CoC? Do we have a message for people that don’t know their left from their right? Or is that us?
Save them all. Let God sort them out. Repentance and obedience, the cornerstones of a continual submission to God, Jesus, and the Holy Spirit. Falling down is about the only institution I can truly adhere to. Thank God that He’s got it covered.
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All of this talk and all of these numbers makes my head hurt. I guess that I am glad that I spent a number of years in the Episcopal Church and will therefore never be trusted to help, in a leadership role, the Church of Christ work all of this out. But, I’ll continue to do what I can in my non-leadership role. To those of you who are in leadership roles, grid your loins for battle!
Readers,
The Truth War is thoughtfully reviewed at Internet Monk: http://www.internetmonk.com/archive/review-the-truth-war-by-john-macarthur
Jay:
Yes, I understand you concern with the first sentence that I wrote (and it may be valid). I have believed you are far more aware of conservative Evangelical struggles than you have suggested in your post. But I could be wrong; this may be an area where you have not seen the broad issue and really think that genuine Evangelicals have grown as much as you propose in the essay with stats you have put forward. I am listening.
In Christ,
Bruce Morton
Katy, Texas
Although it is a critical review, the following quote from this review is interesting:
MacArthur may be too harsh and using too broad a brush, yet there is some truth in his observations (I guess) which – again – forces us to not only look at numerical growth.
Alexander
I guess the Mormons and the Witnesses(two very exclusive groups) haven’t put out the Spirit’s fire since they are growing more than almost all other groups.
>>>
Monty, please do review your thinking for elementary logic. The population of Texas has grown, but that does not mean this is a work of the Spirit. The grass in my front yard does not grow, because I do not fertilize it. That does not mean the weeds in my front yard grew because I DID fertilize them.
Oh, and Monty, your fellow church members need to get out more. A LOT more. All they are really saying is that they have a very narrow circle of acquaintance. Even here in the bible belt I have any number of friends -and scores of acquaintances- who “don’t go to church anywhere”. This is one of the areas where the Spirit is being quenched, as I noted, when our heart for the lost is so shriveled that we don’t even try to make the acquaintance of unsaved people anymore.
CHarles
If your argument is that the (CofC)isn’t growing and are losing membership is because we have “quenched the Spirit” what do you use for an argument when we were growing with a much more radical (we’re right, your wrong approach)back in the 40’s-60’s? You can use statistics to bolster any argument. My point, that I believe was lost on you, is that I’m sure Mormons and JW’s point to their rise in membership as the approval of God, probably like CofC did years ago. It may be true, or it might not be true, as you well know. Numbers tell us things but interpreting the data can be tricky at best and downright subjective at worst.
Just like dwindling numbers could be the quenching of the Spirit as you say , but it might be something totally unrelated. You, however, seem convinced God has removed his hand from our fellowship, you know so much. But many mainline protestant churches of which you would probably have no problem with in terms of their doctrinal stance(unlike CofC) are declining in numbers too, so, have they quenched the Spirit too? Or is God just ticked at the CofC? Perhaps it’s the Spirit of the age more so than any 1 group’s particular conservative bent or lack of grace and thereby God’s removing his Spirit.
In every church there are those that are (or lean) towards Phariseeism but there are also those who are (or lean) towards Sadduceeism. You are an intelligent guy from what I have read of your post but you also seem fairly hostile, angry and a little vindictive and condescending. Maybe you attribute that to “righteous indignation” but to me it comes across as someone who for all his diatribes against a graceless CofC, as someone who could benefit from being a little more graceful. That is, you don’t exactly seem to be a good ambassador for that which you expound so much about. Intelligent yes. Full of grace? Not so much. And no, I’m far from perfect myself. But I do love the church of Christ and will work from within to help her improve just like I believe Jay is doing, not throw stones from outside.
Monty, you show me that I should be more economical with my words. You can draw conclusions from almost nothing, so my writing less would not reduce the amount of inference you draw. Sigh.
Actually, you more repeated my point than argued against it. We both make the same point that one cannot simply take all growth and attach the same meaning to it. But perhaps it is the offense that you have taken with me which clouds your vision here. I never suggested that God has “removed his hand” from your denomination, as I’m not sure his hand was ever in its formation as a schism from the rest of the Restoration Movement. I see no evidence of Spirit-leading in that particular split. See, I’m even meaner than you thought…
Next, you presume my unspoken doctrinal views to align with certain unidentified mainline Protestant denominations. Another ball, high and outside. Isn’t inference at least supposed to be inferred from SOMETHING I actually said? Yes, I do get a bit testy at such rambling and inaccurate sloshing about of vague and unfounded conclusions, but that’s not about the CoC. I don’t care for it among others, either. I dislike fallacious reasoning and bluster with God’s name pasted on top of it, no matter which religion club the culprit attends.
You are more than welcome to try to improve your religion club. I certainly prefer that program to the traditional CoC practice of lobbing mortar rounds through the windows of all the other groups. And please forgive me if the generalization does not fit, but I have serious doubts about any significant improvement in the club while that club battles against change at every turn, continues to reject most of the Church of Jesus as unworthy of their fellowship, and listens to no one but people who already agree with them.
I can sympathize with folks like Jay who also want to improve the club, who actually say things which demand re-thinking and reconsideration and re-reading the scripture instead of just assuming the old interpretations are actually what it says. Jay and I used to have some rather “spirited” discussions on another site a few years ago, where I gave him something of a hard time for not being radical enough to suit my tastes. At the same time, he had the grace to still quote me in one of his posts way back when he did see something of value. While I do not hold the value you and he place on fixing your denomination, I must admit that Jay is clearly espousing some important changes which have the potential to actually move the needle, if taken seriously.
As to grace, you may have a point about my not expressing as much grace as I should. What parts of CoC doctrine do you think I should have the grace to stop challenging? Some CoC doctrines are godly and positive, some are harmless, some are negative and some are downright poisonous. I think one of the reasons I do not express myself very graciously at times is my desperation in trying to get to the heart of the matter, not just to haggle over Greek tenses or historic “isms”, which really matter very little. Some of the problems we have are not there because we merely misinterpreted a minor point. They rest on fundamental failures to understand who our Father is. They reflect much more humanity than divinity. Much division does not really continue because a particular doctrine is so precious to us, but because being able to declare ourselves more right than the guy next door is so precious to us. Far too often, we love being right more than we love the saints, so much so that we use arguments for the former to deny that 98% of the latter even exist.
When I read Jesus speaking to sinners and to the clueless, I see a lot of grace. When I hear him speaking to the Pharisees, I find him to be much more direct and to the heart, cutting through the things they believed wrongly to expose just WHY they taught as they did. He was talking to those who claimed to be mature, to be the guardians of the faith. (Kind of like folks on this board.) Jesus could speak this way to the Pharisees because he knew them. I was born, bred and preached full time in the CoC. I have worn the emperor’s new clothes myself, to my everlasting chagrin.
Numbers – It is hard to look at the Scriptures and not see numbers as important. Our obsession with statistics is indeed apostolic – see Acts. There is some connection between numbers as a sign of God’s favor and our doing the right stuff while letting the Spirit have His way through us.
OTH – why are we growing or shrinking? Growth can be a sign that we are doing something the appeals to the popular mind – for good or ill. Usually this will work like gangbusters for a time until whatever was popularly valued changes then the numbers will fall off. Numbers can fall off when we change from a focus on the popular to a more Scriptural foundation, but in the long run God should begin sending in the folks whom He chooses to use knowing they will be well used and cared for.
As always Scripture provides the best guide – though it is from the mouth of a non-believer: If it is of God it will prosper, if from man it will fade away and come to nothing. Just make sure you are not fighting against God by opposing what you are uncomfortable with.
Charles
I can appreciate your response. I haven’t walked in your shoes obviously and I am truly sorry for whatever offense you were put through when you preached among us. I am certainly no keeper of orthodoxy but I do believe we are all called to keep the faith once delivered. I believe though you are talking about traditions and used the wrong wording. I used to be a keeper and arguer of tradition, but you won’t find any of my words on here that do that. While I have no illusions that we are the “right bunch”, neither are we the wrong bunch, even if we have many Pharisees among us. And I assume that’s how you feel(that there is no right bunch?). If there were, you would be advocating it, right? You are a smart fellow and been through alot from what I can tell and I believe you have alot to offer us on here but JMO it would be alot more pallatable and perhaps truer to that which you advocate if spoken from a heart that seeks to encourage rather than lamblast the windmills you see as dragons.
I’m here to learn and I enjoy alot of what I’m hearing, but when one hears constant condescension, snide remarks, derision and verbal one-upmanship it gets old quickly, alot like the arguments as to why we are the right bunch, equally draining, just the flip side. There again, I’m not the blog police, and I suppose all I need to do is scroll on by. Peace.